TODAY FOREX REPORT EUR/USD, GBP/USD

INTERNATIONAL CURRENCY BUZZ

Forex - U.S. Dollar Inches Down as Trade Tensions Weigh
Forex - GBP/USD leaps above 1.30 on Barnier comments
Forex - EUR/USD looks to 1.1600 post-Eurozone Sentix

EUR/USD

The bulls are in charge in the European session, propelling the EUR/USD pair to takeout the 20-DMA barrier located at 1.1573, as they await fresh impetus for further upside targets. The spot is trying hard to take on the recovery from fresh three-week lows of 1.1526 reached in early Europe, as the US dollar appears to have found some support across its main competitors, after having witnessed a sharp corrective drop from three-day tops at 95.56. Meanwhile, downbeat Eurozone Sentix investor confidence data could also add weight on the common currency. The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence arrived at 12.0 in September versus 14.3 expected. From a broader perspective, the major remains exposed to further downside risks, as the monetary policy divergence between both the continents is back in play after Friday’s solid US NFP data suggests a faster pace of Fed tightening in the coming months.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair gained more than 100 pips in a matter of minutes after the EU's Chief Brexit Negotiator, Michel Barnier, delivered optimistic comments surrounding the divorce talks with the UK. At the moment, the pair is trading at its highest level in ten days at 1.3035, adding nearly 1% on the day. Speaking at a conference in Bled, Slovenia, Barnier stated that they were close to reaching an agreement on the UK-EU security ties and added that it would be realistic to expect an orderly Brexit deal in 6-8 weeks. Regarding the Chequers plan, Barnier refuted the claims that it was rejected by the EU and said that it was useful. Earlier in the day, the data from the UK showed that manufacturing production contracted by 0.2% on a monthly basis in July while the industrial production only expanded by 0.1% in the same period and both readings fell short of the analysts' estimates. On a positive note, the monthly real-GDP growth came in at 0.2% in July to beat the market consensus of 0.2%.

 

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GOLD TRADING FORECAST TODAY

INTERNATIONAL COMEX NEWS

• Gold prices rose on Wednesday morning in Asia, driven by the ongoing currency crisis in Argentina, which economists expect could lead to a recession, a weaker peso and higher inflation. Gold futures for December delivery went up 0.06% to $1,199.7 at 10:47PM ET (02:47 GMT) on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. A monthly survey by Bloomberg on Tuesday showed that Argentina’s inflation is expected to hit 40.3% at the end of the year, higher than the 31.8% forecasted in July.
• Oil fell toward $77 a barrel on Wednesday as a tropical storm hitting the U.S. Gulf coast weakened and moved away from oil-producing areas, easing supply concerns. Crude had jumped the previous day as oil companies shut dozens of offshore platforms in anticipation of damage from tropical storm Gordon. But by Wednesday the storm was weakening, reducing its threat to oil producers.
• U.S. oil producer ConocoPhillips (N:COP) is still awaiting payment from Venezuela on a $2 billion arbitration settlement reached last month with the country's state-run PDVSA, Chief Executive Ryan Lance said on Wednesday. Conoco last month suspended legal attachments efforts that had cut Venezuela's oil exports from several Caribbean facilities following a deal that allowed the country 90 days to make an initial $500 million payment.

ECONOMY NEWS

• Argentina's peso lost nearly 1 percent against the U.S. dollar early on Wednesday as government officials met with the International Monetary Fund in Washington to try to secure early cash disbursements under an emergency financing deal. The peso opened down 0.89 percent at 39.4 to the dollar despite Economy Minister Nicolas Dujovne saying in Washington on Tuesday evening that he hoped to clinch a deal with the IMF within a month.
• Italy is unlikely to get one of its own appointed as the next head of Europe's banking watchdog, sources say, diminishing Rome's chances of retaining its influence over the European Central Bank once ECB chief Mario Draghi steps down next year. The ECB is looking to replace Daniele Nouy, a French national, as the head of the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) -- the first of four top jobs at the central bank coming up for grabs in the next 15 months.
• The U.S. Federal Reserve should hold off on further interest rate rises because the stance of monetary policy is already at neutral or possibly restrictive, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said on Wednesday. Bullard has repeatedly raised the alarm over the central bank's plan to keep raising its benchmark lending rate and pointed to financial market signals as the best indicator of how policymakers should proceed.
  

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INTERNATIONAL COMEX NEWS

• Gold prices gained on Friday as reports that U.S. President Donald Trump was considering plans to impose tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports as soon as next week weighed on market sentiment. Gold futures for December delivery was at a trading price of $1,211.5 per troy ounce, up by 0.6%, at 1:10AM ET (05:10 GMT) on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The precious metal remained on track to record their longest monthly losing streak since 2013 despite today’s gains.
• Oil prices slipped on Friday as concerns over the impact of a global trade war depressed sentiment, although impending U.S. sanctions on Iran and falling Venezuelan output limited losses. Benchmark Brent crude oil (LCOc1) was down 40 cents at $77.37 a barrel by 1310 GMT. U.S. light crude (CLc1) was 30 cents lower at $69.95.
• OPEC oil output has risen this month to a 2018 high as Libyan production recovered and Iraq's southern exports hit a record, a Reuters survey found, although a cut in Iranian shipments due to U.S. sanctions limited the increase. The 15- member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has pumped 32.79 million barrels per day in August, the survey on Friday found, up 220,000 bpd from July's revised level and the highest this year.

ECONOMY NEWS

• The Russian central bank will need to postpone a plan to cut rates due to new U.S. sanctions against Moscow seen taking toll on inflation and the rouble, a monthly Reuters poll of 20 analysts and economists showed on Friday. Russia's economic outlook deteriorated after the rouble hit more than two-year lows against the dollar in August following Washington's move to apply fresh sanctions against Moscow and a warning that it could extend them in the future.
• The Brazilian economy accelerated slightly in the second quarter despite a nationwide truckers' strike, as a slow and uneven recovery rumbled on ahead of presidential elections in October. Brazil's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.2 percent from the first quarter and 1.0 percent from a year before, government statistics agency IBGE said on Friday. That compares with economists' consensus forecasts of 0.1 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively.
• The European Commission confirmed on Friday that trade measures restricting the sale of solar panels from China would end at the start of next week. The Commission, which coordinates EU trade policy, said in a statement that the measures would expire at midnight on Monday September 3. The European Union first imposed anti-dumping and anti -subsidy measures for Chinese solar panels, wafers and cells in 2013 and extended them in March 2017 by 18 months, signaling that they should then end.

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KLSE Daily Market Commentary

The FBM KLCI index gained 8.46 points or 0.47% on Monday. The Finance Index increased 0.30% to 16128.35 points, the Properties Index up 0.06% to 1311.71 points and the Plantation Index down 0.52% to 7743.63 points. The market traded within a range of 10.74 points between an intra-day high of 1825.76 and a low of 1815.02 during the session.

Actively traded stocks include PRIVA, INGENCO, DGB, BJCORP, SCN, WINTONI, PLABS, MPAY, GENETEC and CONNECT. Trading volume increased to 1922.61 mil shares worth RM1709.00 mil as compared to Friday’s 1644.66 mil shares worth RM1820.37 mil.

Leading Movers were ASTRO (+9 sen to RM3.19), DIGI (+14 sen to RM6.33), PETCHEM (+12 sen to RM5.60), TM (+15 sen to RM7.31) and CIMB (+7 sen to RM6.21). Lagging Movers were KLK (-44 sen to RM22.42), SKPETRO (-4 sen to RM2.33), HLFG (-22 sen to RM16.68), RHBCAP (-9 sen to RM7.84) and AMMB (-4 sen to RM6.30). Market breadth was positive with 400 gainers as compared to 383 losers.

The KLCI started the week on a positive note, closing higher at 1821.83 points. The performance of our benchmark index was in line with gains in US market on last Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that U.S. interest rates would probably be raised later this year but the pace of tightening would be gradual.